
Domestic as well as foreign analysts generally agree that the domestic interest rates
have peaked during the second half of 1996. Thus, Normandy foresees better returns
for bonds investors. The interest rate trend for Malaysia is likely to be stable
with downside potential after the first half of 1997.
The current interbank rate (KLIBOR) for l2-month period hovers around 7.40% with
average fixed deposits for a 12-month period around 7.20%. Anticipation of a downtrend
for the domestic interest rates in the medium-to-long term should deliver attractive
returns for bond holders. As mentioned, falling interest rates are positive for the
bonds markets.
In Malaysia, the bond market is still at its infant stage. There are many areas which
need to be done before the local bond market can fully develop. Positive economic
fundamentals are expected to support the bond market in the near future.
Bondholders are likely to receive more attractive returns. In addition, it is not
every year that we see the bulls visiting the stock market. To sum up, bonds offer
investors three main components to an investor;
- Income - predictable and regular income
- Potential for capital gains - falling interest rates produce capital gains
- Diversification - There is low correlation between stocks and bonds
Investors who want higher returns than the fixed deposits but less market risk
than equities should strongly consider the option of investing in bonds. Efforts
to educate the market would have to be intensified. All in all, Normandy Research
is confident towards the positive development of the Malaysian bond market in a foreseeable
future.
