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The Good News
If the price of the share price increased by 50% a year to RM24 per share, Mr.Investor
will have a nice gain of 80% after interest charges of 13% p.a.
|
RM |
| Loan |
7,200 |
| Equity |
16,800 |
| Total Market Value |
24,000 |
The Bad News
But what happens if the reverse happens when the share price fell to RM8 per share
or a 50% decline? In this case Mr. Investor would have a 102% decline in his equity.
|
RM |
| Loan |
7,200 |
| Equity |
800 |
| Total Market Value |
8,000 |
In 1994, we saw many examples of borrowing to invest going wrong when share and
unit trust prices fell. In comparison, if Mr.Investor had used only cash for the
purchase of RM8,800 worth of stocks, he would have enjoyed a 50% return on his initial
investment if the portfolio value doubles to RM24,000. Favourable financial leverage
magnified the 50% gain into a 80% return.
However, should there be bad news whereby the share price drops by 50%, the adverse
financial leverage magnified the 50% drop into a 102% decline in equity. Mr.Investor
can expect to receive a "margin call" soon. This means that Mr. Investor
will need to pay up extra money to bring the lending ratio back to 45% or selling
some of the shares, possibly at a loss.
One point investors should be aware of is the "buffer" which is commonly
practiced. A buffer is the margin the stockbroking company as a lender builds in
to protect itself and the investor's portfolio. How this works is if a company says
it will let you borrow 70% of the value of a portfolio, the investor will not be
alerted of a margin until the loan-to-valuation ratio reaches 75% for a 5% buffer
zone.
The advantages and disadvantages of borrowing to invest are summarised in Table
1:

All investors should be aware that there are dangers in this financing facility
because the share market is traditionally more volatile than property markets. This
is caused partly by fluctuations in the daily share trading whereas there is less
daily fluctuations in house prices because a house is not traded every day. Another
danger is the companies which funds are invested in are already having debt in their
balance sheets which can make their profits and share prices sensitive to interest
rate changes. Because companies structure themselves for growth by their own debt
levels, this increases the investor's own risk of financial success or failure. Therefore
it is not a bad idea to glance at the debt/equity ratio of the shares you are borrowing
to buy.
For a risk adverse person or the faint-hearted, a geared investment would be too
risky. Margin financing may have its downside risks but borrowing to invest is best
for long term investors looking to create long term wealth. It is advisable investors
should not be borrowing money for the short term unless they are absolutely certain
the investment will perform above borrowing costs and in reality one cannot be sure
of that.
Hence investors with a long term investment horizon should put in enough money
or security to avoid a margin call because margin calls usually happen at a time
when people are nervous and do not have the cash. Any geared investor who becomes
retrenched or experiences a curtailment of income due to sickness has potential problems
in terms of winding up a geared investment plan in the early stages. This is because
of the volatile nature of the share market which can reduce the value of the portfolio.
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